Wednesday 31 July 2013

What I trade?

Looking for holy grail? Good luck! In the mean time try to trade whats obvious. In another words FX is full of "maybe" and that's ok. Seems it can't be different. So the question is "What moves the market?". In my humble opinion I would say orders. Thus simple logic leads us to conclusion that we might trade with currently stronger side. And here comes all that mess.... D1 upTrend, H4 downTrend, H1 consolidation which might be the 38 - 62 FIB range before last leg of the H4 downSwing, .... or bulls got the power because of recently released data. Now its time to solve the question: What I trade?

Based on that answer one should know if trading D1 trend lasting few months or 5M scalps of H1 range.
Little example: new Interest Rates Release are critical for long term trader as well as for M15 swinger, but in totally different manner.

So what do you trade? Long term data trying to catch carry trades + potential profits? Are you trend follower? Ok, based on what edge? Trend Lines? Support / Resistances? Combinations of whatever?
Lets say Trend Lines: ok, so you believe that the BULLs  / BEARs fight get temporarily solved because of Trend Line. Well, maybe .. . As well as with whatever other approach it works sometimes and sometimes not. To optimise that by mixing with "only if" was not giving me better results at all. Or to be more specific, for some period of time yes, but only for some. So whats the improvement?

One thing is clear, FX markets are heavily manipulated and we as retail trades are the last who get news and prices.These two factors combined might be the answer why 90+ % traders are loosing. Maybe ...(again).

Does not matter, the question is: Why big boys place their orders?

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