Wednesday 31 July 2013

Risk Reward Ratio

Risk Reward Ratio: ok but whats the advantage of big RRR? I hope someone can really explain me, because we can look at that from mathematical and psychological perspective. First one shows that there is no edge, second that RRR 1:1 or even negative RRR is psychologically better.

Math:
Once we enter a market we have 50% chance that it goes up and vice versa. This is applicable to RRR 1:1 as well. But if our Stop Loss is 100 pips and Profit Target is 200 pips, thus implementing nice 1:2 RRR, from math point of view there is 33.33% probability that we cash and 66.67% that we loose. So in theory we gain 1x 200 pips & loose 2x 100 pips. Anyone see any edge? I don't ...

Psyche:
Trading RRR 1:1 seems to be ideal because I can win what is my risk (1R accordingly to van Tharp terminology) so if there is any real edge on my approach, P/L statement will show that clearly. Oh yes, don't forget fees...
Trading RRR 1:2+ leads to situation when we are enjoying open profits of R1+ but than the market for whatever reason retraces and we can lose what was winner already. Start to implement Trailing Stop Loss and you know what will be trying to figure out next few months /years. Fingers crossed ...

Negative RRR: After all I don't see any disadvantage regarding to Negative RRR. Probability against gain. Often small profits, one big loss time to time. BTW: did you enjoyed big looser turned into small profit? Nice experience! Anyway, don't go this way ..

Conclusion: as far as trading negative R leads to fear to open next trade, because one loss will wipe out few wins, at least from my point of view R 1:1 is ideal solution.

Note: this article is all about "is there sole advantage of positive RRR", ie without any relation to any strategy / approach based on data or TA.


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